Welcome to Variance
Variance kicks my ass! I've experienced variance playing casino bonuses, I worked it out last night, I've played over 15000 hands of blackjack to unlock bonuses. You would think that I would have gotten the hand of it and been able to handle the swings rigth? Its not the case; I'm now experiencing variance in poker and it still kicks my ass. However, I think that I am becoming more resilient.
Let me explain the situation, I've been finding that when I play somedays, and I get ahead I am compelled to stop playing in order to "protect" the money I have won, which of course is rubbish but I still do it. That is I'm sort of scared of the variance that I know to expect. Anyway, I decided that I'd put in a solid day today, win or lose, just try and get the hours in. I've played about 350-400 hands thus far and experienced some pretty heavy swings. I think it was compounded, because I so badly want to get myself out of this hole that I'm in and I came so close to doing it. I was up to the point where I was down by only about 8 bucks. I had won about 50 bucks in like 20 mins/ half an hour. Then I got cained and lost 40 bucks in no time, some big hands including losing trip kings to a rivered gutshot straight, and losing trip 2's to a rivered straight, (although he may have been getting odds) but still bad for me.
I took a break for fear of going on tilt, played dad in some table tennis... kicked his ass 9 games to 1, and now I'm back at it. Sitting at around down 40 bucks over all. Tomorrow I'll have the weekly report, if I manage to get back in the black by then I'll post a pokerpatterns graph, if not I won't. I'll definately post a graph of my casino bonus winnings so far which a made up last night, till then, toodaloo.
Let me explain the situation, I've been finding that when I play somedays, and I get ahead I am compelled to stop playing in order to "protect" the money I have won, which of course is rubbish but I still do it. That is I'm sort of scared of the variance that I know to expect. Anyway, I decided that I'd put in a solid day today, win or lose, just try and get the hours in. I've played about 350-400 hands thus far and experienced some pretty heavy swings. I think it was compounded, because I so badly want to get myself out of this hole that I'm in and I came so close to doing it. I was up to the point where I was down by only about 8 bucks. I had won about 50 bucks in like 20 mins/ half an hour. Then I got cained and lost 40 bucks in no time, some big hands including losing trip kings to a rivered gutshot straight, and losing trip 2's to a rivered straight, (although he may have been getting odds) but still bad for me.
I took a break for fear of going on tilt, played dad in some table tennis... kicked his ass 9 games to 1, and now I'm back at it. Sitting at around down 40 bucks over all. Tomorrow I'll have the weekly report, if I manage to get back in the black by then I'll post a pokerpatterns graph, if not I won't. I'll definately post a graph of my casino bonus winnings so far which a made up last night, till then, toodaloo.
posted by morris at 11:57 PM
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